6/25/2012

Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach (Springer Series in Statistics) Review

Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing: The State Space Approach (Springer Series in Statistics)
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This work provides for exponential smoothing what Box and Jenkins "Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control" provided for ARIMA models -- an accessible theoretical framework.
Exponential smoothing is a widely used forecasting method that does well in forecasting competitions because it's robust and flexible.
The fact that Hyndman also has a nice R package implementing this framework is an added plus. [...]

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Exponential smoothing methods have been around since the 1950s, and are still the most popular forecasting methods used in business and industry. However, a modeling framework incorporating stochastic models, likelihood calculation, prediction intervals and procedures for model selection, was not developed until recently. This book brings together all of the important new results on the state space framework for exponential smoothing. It will be of interest to people wanting to apply the methods in their own area of interest as well as for researchers wanting to take the ideas in new directions. Part 1 provides an introduction to exponential smoothing and the underlying models. The essential details are given in Part 2, which also provide links to the most important papers in the literature. More advanced topics are covered in Part 3, including the mathematical properties of the models and extensions of the models for specific problems. Applications to particular domains are discussed in Part 4.

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6/24/2012

Enterprise Risk Management: Today's Leading Research and Best Practices for Tomorrow's Executives (Robert W. Kolb Series) Review

Enterprise Risk Management: Today's Leading Research and Best Practices for Tomorrow's Executives (Robert W. Kolb Series)
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A new book on Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) has arrived in a rapidly filling field. What should we make of it? Is it a threat (i.e. does it only muddy the already turbulent waters after putting a charge on our wallets and bookshelves) or is it an opportunity (i.e. something that is good for the growth of the discipline and its practitioners)? Is it minor league, major league or world champion?
Quantitatively, it has two editors, Betty J. Simkins, a US business and finance academic, and John Fraser, a Canadian senior executive practitioner. It runs 577 pages which includes a comprehensive index and contains 26 chapters, written by 30 contributors and several panellists. It is divided into six parts (Overview; ERM Management, Culture and Control; ERM Tools and Techniques; Types of Risk; Survey Evidence and Academic Research; Special Topics and Case Studies) and features a convenient chapter format comprising of an argument, conclusions, notes and references.
According to the book's subtitle: Today's Leading Research and Best Practices for Tomorrow's Executives, it is intended to be read by up-and-coming managers with their sights set on the C-Suite. I would broaden that audience to experienced practitioners, curious students of all organizations, and academics who have an interest in this fascinating and often misunderstood discipline.
Qualitatively, it is honest, unpretentious and well written and edited, qualities that are not always honoured in the field of managing risk. Moreover, with almost three dozen perspectives (including the panellists) you can be assured that you are not being inflicted with only one person's opinion. As a keen student of risk management, I appreciated the nicely balanced approach - a nuanced blend of concepts and practice - which passes from the contributors through the skilful hands of the two editors. I particularly liked the emphasis on risk culture - and not just the usual nostrums about "the tone at the top" or "management buy-in". I have come to gag at those facile clichés and will take a full star off any review of books that rely on them. In several chapters dedicated to organizational culture, the contributors dig below the popular veneer to penetrate one of the most challenging prerequisites of ERM - a healthy, coherent and robust organizational attitude and ethic towards risk. Of course, there is always more to drill, but this is at least a credible insight beyond the penetrating insights into the obvious that so often ricochet around ERM conference halls.
Although I thought I'd seen them all, I also appreciated that a number of useful tools were laid on the table. To be sure, there is a point to be mooted here and a claim to be challenged there. For example, the notion of risk appetite and tolerance, while treated by several contributors at length, leaves the reader wondering why such an important subject has never been able provoke a consistent definition, let alone treatment by practitioners. These quibbles aside, the scope of topics addressed here is impressive, spanning lofty and arcane topics like strategy, finance and reputation, as well as gritty techniques like running risk assessment workshops and plotting the results. Midway through the book, there are some pithy risk management insights from Warren Buffet that many investors would agree is worth the price of the book alone.
Like all worthwhile books, this one is best read critically, reflected deeply upon and discussed thoroughly with knowledgeable or interested colleagues. To be sure, risk management is risky - that is to say, mishandled like any tool, machine or weapon, it will likely hurt you and others. Understand and embrace its principles and respect its limitations and risk management can be an intriguingly wise counsellor. This book is an excellent investment for anyone who cares deeply about the risks to their organization. Perhaps some of the executives who are in jail or facing prosecution for mismanaging their enterprise risks will find it offers advice too late in the game to make any difference. For the rest of us, this book can provide useful prescriptive advice that might otherwise take a lifetime of costly trial and error to acquire. In my view, it is a first class job and well worth the price.


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Essential insights on the various aspects of enterprise risk management

If you want to understand enterprise risk management from some of the leading academics and practitioners of this exciting new methodology, Enterprise Risk Management is the book for you. Through in-depth insights into what practitioners of this evolving business practice are actually doing as well as anticipating what needs to be taught on the topic, John Fraser and Betty Simkins have sought out the leading experts in this field to clearly explain what enterprise risk management is and how you can teach, learn, and implement these leading practices within the context of your business activities. In this book, the authors take a broad view of ERM, or what is called a holistic approach to ERM.
Enterprise Risk Management introduces you to the wide range of concepts and techniques for managing risk in a holistic way that correctly identifies risks and prioritizes the appropriate responses. This invaluable guide offers a broad overview of the different types of techniques: the role of the board, risk tolerances, risk profiles, risk workshops, and allocation of resources, while focusing on the principles that determine business success. This comprehensive resource also provides a thorough introduction to enterprise risk management as it relates to credit, market, and operational risk, as well as the evolving requirements of the rating agencies and their importance to the overall risk management in a corporate setting. Filled with helpful tables and charts, Enterprise Risk Management offers a wealth of knowledge on the drivers, the techniques, the benefits, as well as the pitfalls to avoid, in successfully implementing enterprise risk management.
Discusses the history of risk management and more recently developed enterprise risk management practices and how you can prudently implement these techniques within the context of your underlying business activities
Provides coverage of topics such as the role of the chief risk officer, the use of anonymous voting technology, and risk indicators and their role in risk management
Explores the culture and practices of enterprise risk management without getting bogged down by the mathematics surrounding the more conventional approaches to financial risk management

This informative guide will help you unlock the incredible potential of enterprise risk management, which has been described as a proxy for good management.

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6/23/2012

The Savvy Woman's Guide to Owning A Home: How to Care For, Improve, and Maintain Your Home (Savvy Woman's Guide (RSBPress)) Review

The Savvy Woman's Guide to Owning A Home: How to Care For, Improve, and Maintain Your Home (Savvy Woman's Guide (RSBPress))
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I am shocked by the good reviews this book is getting. I made this purchase thinking I'd learn how to "care for, improve and maintain" my home. Instead I found a bunch of non-specific reasons why I need to maintain my home and nothing about how to do so. What exactly are these reviewers referring back to? There is no information here that is complete enough to be useful. I am willing to bet that I never need to open this book again.
Anyone who has ever moved already knows most of the helpful hints contained in the first 1/3 of this book. We're talking about simple things like: change your address with the post office; find out how to get from your new house to your office; call the electric company and get the power turned on...
The real content is in middle third of the book. That's the section that's supposed to be about maintaining your home. Here's the gist: Houses have plumbing systems, call a plumber. Houses have electric systems, call an electrician. (Unless you want to change the color of your light switch, apparently as women we're all supposed to get giddy at the thought of light switches in different colors.) The repairs chapter is concentrated on which professionals to call in. Roof trouble requires a roofer... There are a whopping 2 paragraphs about doing repairs yourself. In these paragraphs Ms. Werner recommends purchasing a book about home maintenance!!! The seasonal and yearly checkup chapters are the only redeeming part of the whole book, although they are still lacking. These consist basically of a list of places to check for structural damage.
The final 1/3 of the book contains more generalized information that about emergency planning, picking schools for your kids and canceling your mail when you go on vacation. Again, this is not really relevant to home improvement, and is mostly targeted at people lacking common sense or people who have made long distance moves. This is followed up by a few pages about remodeling. Guess what: you're supposed to call a contractor to do you're remodeling.

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Newly revised and updated to include information on energy efficiency-saving money, saving energy and maintaining your home. Finally, a homeowner's manual for everyone. Just as a new vehicle comes with an Owner's Manual, now your house can too. Homeowners aren't expected to repair their own home anymore than a driver is expected to repair their vehicle. Yet in each case, the owner is expected to know when a problem arises and who to call for help if the job isn't DIY. That is an owner's responsibility. Maintaining a home means knowing when servicing needs to be done, or when repairs need to be made. None of this is obvious to someone who has never been responsible for a home.

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6/21/2012

Fallen Giant: The Amazing Story of Hank Greenberg and the History of AIG Review

Fallen Giant: The Amazing Story of Hank Greenberg and the History of AIG
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Reading about some CEO in the insurance industry, even a colorful one like Hank Greenberg, would not normally be my first choice for spending a leisurely afternoon by the fire. But I am certainly glad I chose to pick up this book.
Ron Shelp's tale of Hank Greenberg and AIG is utterly fascinating. The rise and fall of Greenberg, an extraordinary man who despite his present troubles is obviously greatly admired by the author (a former senior officer of AIG who reported directly to Greenberg for 12 years), has elements of Greek tragedy. At age 80, Greenberg had everything one could possibly want in the world, and he had earned it all. One would think his highest priority should have been to protect his legacy and his well-deserved reputation as one of the world's great businessmen.
But he was tripped up by inattentiveness to his own vulnerability and that of his company in a post-Enron world. The free-wheeling ways of the international insurance industry, and the dubious financial engineering methods and questionable accounting practices that must have been growing like a cancer inside AIG over a number of years, never seemed to have sounded any warning bells in his mind. It was business as usual. But after Enron, the world had changed, and Greenberg had the bad luck to have as an adversary an energetic, determined and effective crusader against corporate malfeasance -- the Attorney General of New York (and now Governor-elect) Eliot Spitzer.
The rest is history. Ongoing litigation will determine the final chapter of this story. Greenberg's alleged misdeeds, even if they are proved in court, are trivial in comparison to the crimes committed at Enron and by many of the more egregious corporate bad guys of our era. Punishment, if the prosecutors prevail, will likely be a lot less severe than in some other high profile cases. But those alleged misdeeds have already been enough to destroy a great man's reputation, and that must be a stunning personal tragedy for the leading character of this excellent book.

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A unique insider view into the recent AIG crisis and Hank Greenberg

For nearly 40 years, Maurice "Hank" Greenberg was one of the most powerful CEOs in America. He built American International Group (AIG) from a second-rate insurer with a great Chinese franchise into one of the world's most profitable companies. But times have certainly changed, and now, in the Second Edition of Fallen Giant, author Ronald Shelp-who worked alongside Greenberg and within the AIG organization for many years-with the help of Al Ehrbar, sheds light on both AIG, the company, and Hank Greenberg, the man.
This fully updated Second Edition digs deep to uncover the latest developments for both Greenberg and AIG, such as the many lawsuits underway, including a criminal trial that will send five men-one who still works for Greenberg-to prison. It also chronicles the incredible story of how AIG was rescued by the Fed, and why the government had no choice in the matter.
Includes new insights into the latest developments for both AIG and Hank Greenberg
Reveals the real reasons behind the U.S. government's unprecedented bailout of AIG
Explores AIG's history, starting in Shanghai in 1919, along with the downfall of its CEO
Offers rare insights into how AIG almost collapsed

Filled with international intrigue and expert business acumen, the Second Edition of Fallen Giant paints a compelling portrait of both the past successes and current crises of Hank Greenberg and AIG.

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6/20/2012

The Handyman Business Guide To Success: Setting Your Hourly Rates, Estimating Handyman Jobs, Marketing, Licensing, Insurance And More Review

The Handyman Business Guide To Success: Setting Your Hourly Rates, Estimating Handyman Jobs, Marketing, Licensing, Insurance And More
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Bob Cheal's book shares a wealth of knowledge for all handypersons! This is a writer who knows his material from "hands on" experience. Over the years he's handled a wide variety of projects in many homes, including ours. He's a thoughtful problem-solver. I like to call Bob our personal house-doctor because he's authentic, thorough and optimistic. You'll also find these qualities reflected in his book.

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Free Handyman Forms:Enhance your professional image with our Handyman Invoice, Work Proposal and Change Order forms included with your purchase.These templates (.pdf, .xls formats) are perfect for printing directly from your computer.Insert your contact information or logo into the editable .xls format (Microsoft Excel or Open Office required) and you are good to go!All main line copy stores can create multi-part NCR (no carbon required) forms from these templates at reasonable prices.You'll have professional looking invoices to match your professional workmanship.The templates are a free digital download with verification of your purchase.
This book is written by a handyman for a handyman!Before you can make the decision to start your handyman business there are a number of questions that need to be answered. How will you set your rates and how quickly will you be up and running? Are there licensing requirements? What type of work will you be doing and do you have the skills required? How will you market yourself? These questions and many more are answered in "The Handyman Business Guide to Success" by Bob Cheal, owner and operator of Ship-Shape Handyman Services. He shares his experience starting a handyman business and shares the secrets to earning significantly more than the average handyman. There is a Handyman Estimating Guide to help you successfully price your work. This guide assumes labor rates of $50 per hour and includes pictures from actual jobs."The Handyman Business Guide to Success" will help you move ahead with your own profitable handyman business.


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6/19/2012

Million Dollar Closing Techniques Review

Million Dollar Closing Techniques
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This book is very good for beginner, as it mentions all the basic and foundamental concepts and mindsets in selling. However, as a product of MDRT centre, I am expecting more. I am expecting some more in-depth insights or inspirating ideas for the sales who is in average but wants to increase their business to MDRT level. Frankly specking, I am quite disappointed when I found out that this book contains mainly foundamental concepts which are not distinctive and which I have heard about from other sources (remember, this book is from MDRT centre, not other "average" writers).

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You've heard from the rest, now learn from the best-Million Dollar Closing Techniques The close is the last critical phase of the selling process and, often, the beginning of a long and fruitful relationship. Unfortunately, it is also the phase in which many a sure thing has foundered. In this groundbreaking guide, some of the world's most successful sales professionals demystify the art of the close and instruct you in proven closing strategies and techniques. Based on interviews with members of the prestigious Million Dollar Round Table-the top six percent of the international life insurance sales industry-Million Dollar Closing Techniques features fascinating, instructive "war stories" and step-by-step guidance on:* Closing psychology* Breaking through the preoccupation barrier* Setting goals and preparing to close* Motivating customers to go all the way* Power phrases that help you to closeNo matter what product or service you sell, you won't want to be without this authoritative guide to the art and science of effective closing techniques. Read Million Dollar Closing Techniques and take the leap to a bold new level of professional excellence. Also available in the Million Dollar Round Table series: Million Dollar Prospecting Techniques Paper * 0-471-32550-3 * $16.95 USA/$26.50 CAN Million Dollar Selling Techniques Paper * 0-471-32549-X * $16.95 USA/$26.50 CAN

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